# Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza". Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza leads at 50%. Next is Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza at 50%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T14:27:41Z (25 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 22, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 50% | 50% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 50% | 50% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza | 0.1% | 0.1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Estramil and Alvaro Guillen Meza in the Montevideo, Uruguay, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 8:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Thiago Estramil' if Thiago Estramil advances against Alvaro Guillen Meza.

This market will resolve to 'Alvaro Guillen Meza' if Alvaro Guillen Meza advances against Thiago Estramil.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/montevideo-thiago-estramil-vs-alvaro-guillen-meza
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-estrami-meza-2026-11-15?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/montevideo-thiago-estramil-vs-alvaro-guillen-meza

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.