# Moriya vs Bolt: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Moriya vs Bolt". Alex Bolt leads at 71%. Next is Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt at 53%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T07:43:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 24, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alex Bolt | 71% | — | 71% | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 53% | 53% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 50.5% | 50.5% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 48% | 48% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 45.5% | 45.5% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 34% | 34% | — | not on both |
| Hiroki Moriya | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/moriya-vs-bolt
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-moriya-bolt-2026-11-10?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpchallengermatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/moriya-vs-bolt

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.