# MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?". Yes leads at 42.5%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T11:52:41Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 42.5% | 42.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Intesa Sanpaolo, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo and must not be restricted to only the subsidiaries of either company.

An announcement by MPS or Intesa Sanpaolo within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.

Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/mps-x-intesa-sanpaolo-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mps-x-intesa-sanpaolo-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026-20260612212324741?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/mps-x-intesa-sanpaolo-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.