# NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Qualifying Session: Pole Position: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Qualifying Session: Pole Position". Justin Haley leads at 29.5%. Next is Carson Hocevar at 29%. $1K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:09:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 14, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Justin Haley | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Carson Hocevar | 29% | 29% |
| Casey Mears | 29% | 29% |
| Denny Hamlin | 22% | 22% |
| Tyler Reddick | 21% | 21% |
| Kyle Larson | 19% | 19% |
| Ryan Blaney | 13% | 13% |
| Christopher Bell | 12% | 12% |
| William Byron | 10% | 10% |
| Ty Gibbs | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Chase Briscoe | 9% | 9% |
| Chase Elliott | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Daniel Suárez | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Austin Cindric | 8% | 8% |
| Bubba Wallace | 8% | 8% |
| Alex Bowman | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Brad Keselowski | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Chris Buescher | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Corey Heim | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Erik Jones | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Joey Logano | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| AJ Allmendinger | 7% | 7% |
| Austin Dillon | 7% | 7% |
| Austin Hill | 7% | 7% |
| Chad Finchum | 7% | 7% |
| Cody Ware | 7% | 7% |
| Cole Custer | 7% | 7% |
| Connor Zilisch | 7% | 7% |
| J.J. Yeley | 7% | 7% |
| John H. Nemechek | 7% | 7% |
| Josh Berry | 7% | 7% |
| Michael McDowell | 7% | 7% |
| Noah Gragson | 7% | 7% |
| Ricky Stenhouse | 7% | 7% |
| Riley Herbst | 7% | 7% |
| Ross Chastain | 7% | 7% |
| Ryan Preece | 7% | 7% |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 7% | 7% |
| Todd Gilliland | 7% | 7% |
| Ty Dillon | 7% | 7% |

Showing the top 40 of 41 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Governing League](https://www.nascar.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nascar-cup-series-championship-race-qualifying-session-pole-position
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarpole?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nascar-cup-series-championship-race-qualifying-session-pole-position

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.