# NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner". Kyle Larson leads at 37.4%. Next is Ryan Blaney at 13%. $326K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T16:55:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $326K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kyle Larson | 37.4% | 95.6% | 18% | 77.6 pts |
| Ryan Blaney | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Tyler Reddick | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Chase Briscoe | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Christopher Bell | 8% | 2.9% | 10% | 7.2 pts |
| William Byron | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Denny Hamlin | 4.4% | 1.9% | 10% | 8.1 pts |
| Bubba Wallace | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Chase Elliott | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Joey Logano | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Ty Gibbs | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Austin Cindric | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Corey Heim | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Alex Bowman | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Chris Buescher | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Josh Berry | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Ross Chastain | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Ryan Preece | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| AJ Allmendinger | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Austin Hill | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Carson Hocevar | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Daniel Suarez | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Shane van Gisbergen | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Austin Dillon | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Brad Keselowski | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Casey Mears | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Chad Finchum | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Cody Ware | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Cole Custer | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Connor Zilisch | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Erik Jones | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| J.J. Yeley | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Justin Haley | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Michael McDowell | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Noah Gragson | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Riley Herbst | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Todd Gilliland | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Ty Dillon | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 41 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Governing League](https://www.nascar.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nascar-cup-series-championship-race-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nascar-cup-series-2026-champion-20260722193936777?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarrace?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nascar-cup-series-championship-race-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.