# NASCAR NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race: Top 20 Finishers: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race: Top 20 Finishers". Kyle Larson leads at 88%. Next is Tyler Reddick at 78.5%. $90K has traded across 41 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:22:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $90K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kyle Larson | 88% | 94.4% | 81.5% | 12.9 pts |
| Tyler Reddick | 78.5% | — | 78.5% | not on both |
| William Byron | 75.5% | — | 75.5% | not on both |
| Ryan Blaney | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Chase Briscoe | 74% | — | 74% | not on both |
| Chase Elliott | 72% | — | 72% | not on both |
| Bubba Wallace | 65.5% | — | 65.5% | not on both |
| Chris Buescher | 63.5% | — | 63.5% | not on both |
| Ty Gibbs | 63% | — | 63% | not on both |
| Corey Heim | 62.5% | — | 62.5% | not on both |
| Austin Dillon | 62% | — | 62% | not on both |
| Joey Logano | 62% | — | 62% | not on both |
| Alex Bowman | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| Austin Cindric | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| Shane van Gisbergen | 56% | — | 56% | not on both |
| Brad Keselowski | 55.5% | — | 55.5% | not on both |
| Daniel Suarez | 55.5% | — | 55.5% | not on both |
| Ryan Preece | 53.5% | — | 53.5% | not on both |
| Erik Jones | 50.5% | — | 50.5% | not on both |
| Josh Berry | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Justin Haley | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Ross Chastain | 48.5% | — | 48.5% | not on both |
| Noah Gragson | 48% | — | 48% | not on both |
| AJ Allmendinger | 47.5% | — | 47.5% | not on both |
| Michael McDowell | 46.5% | — | 46.5% | not on both |
| Zane Smith | 45.5% | — | 45.5% | not on both |
| Todd Gilliland | 45% | — | 45% | not on both |
| Denny Hamlin | 43.1% | 3.3% | 83% | 79.8 pts |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 43% | — | 43% | not on both |
| Riley Herbst | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 38% | — | 38% | not on both |
| Austin Hill | 35.5% | — | 35.5% | not on both |
| Cole Custer | 32.5% | — | 32.5% | not on both |
| Connor Zilisch | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |
| Ty Dillon | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Christopher Bell | 16.4% | 1.3% | 62% | 60.8 pts |
| J.J. Yeley | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Cody Ware | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Casey Mears | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Chad Finchum | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 41 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Governing League](https://www.nascar.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nascar-nascar-cup-series-championship-race-top-20-finishers
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nascar-cup-series-2026-champion-20260722193936777?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascartop20?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nascar-nascar-cup-series-championship-race-top-20-finishers

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.