# NASCAR NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race: Top 5 Finishers: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race: Top 5 Finishers". Kyle Larson leads at 84.1%. Next is Tyler Reddick at 50%. $90K has traded across 41 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T19:44:03Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $90K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kyle Larson | 84.1% | 94.9% | 52% | 42.9 pts |
| Tyler Reddick | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Ryan Blaney | 47% | — | 47% | not on both |
| Chase Briscoe | 46% | — | 46% | not on both |
| William Byron | 44% | — | 44% | not on both |
| Bubba Wallace | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| Ty Gibbs | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| Joey Logano | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |
| Denny Hamlin | 25.8% | 3% | 48.5% | 45.5 pts |
| Chase Elliott | 24.5% | — | 24.5% | not on both |
| Corey Heim | 20.5% | — | 20.5% | not on both |
| Austin Cindric | 17.5% | — | 17.5% | not on both |
| Josh Berry | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Ross Chastain | 12.5% | — | 12.5% | not on both |
| Christopher Bell | 11% | 0.7% | 42% | 41.3 pts |
| Alex Bowman | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Brad Keselowski | 9.5% | — | 9.5% | not on both |
| Chris Buescher | 9.5% | — | 9.5% | not on both |
| AJ Allmendinger | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Daniel Suarez | 7.5% | — | 7.5% | not on both |
| Ryan Preece | 7.5% | — | 7.5% | not on both |
| Shane van Gisbergen | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Cole Custer | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Erik Jones | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Justin Haley | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Austin Dillon | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Connor Zilisch | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Michael McDowell | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Todd Gilliland | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Austin Hill | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Noah Gragson | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Riley Herbst | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Zane Smith | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Carson Hocevar | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Casey Mears | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Chad Finchum | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Cody Ware | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| J.J. Yeley | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 41 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Governing League](https://www.nascar.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nascar-nascar-cup-series-championship-race-top-5-finishers
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nascar-cup-series-2026-champion-20260722193936777?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascartop5?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nascar-nascar-cup-series-championship-race-top-5-finishers

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.