# National Guard deployed to election sites by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "National Guard deployed to election sites by...?". November 30 leads at 2.2%. Next is December 31 at 1.9%. $15K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T15:12:21Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $15K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| November 30 | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| December 31 | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| November 15 | 1.1% | 1.1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if federalized National Guard personnel are deployed to a polling place or a vote-counting or canvassing center in the United States between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying deployment requires National Guard personnel who have been called into federal service or placed under orders pursuant to Title 10 of the U.S. Code (including under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 or the Insurrection Act, 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255) to be assigned to, and physically present at, a polling place, early voting site, or facility where ballots are counted, tabulated, or canvassed (including an election office conducting a count, recount, or canvass) in connection with the November 3, 2026 U.S. elections or any count, recount, or canvass of those elections.

National Guard personnel serving in State Active Duty or Title 32 status, including routine election support under a governor's authority (e.g. cybersecurity, logistics, or poll worker assistance), will not qualify. Deployments of the District of Columbia National Guard or of Title 32 personnel in Washington, D.C. will likewise not qualify unless those personnel are called into federal service under Title 10. Incidental presence of Guard personnel near a polling place or counting facility in the course of a deployment not assigned to that location will not qualify.

Statements, announcements, threats, or orders to deploy will not qualify unless federalized National Guard personnel are physically deployed to a qualifying location. Deployments of active-duty military personnel other than the National Guard, or of federal law enforcement personnel, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official U.S. government statements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/national-guard-deployed-to-election-sites-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/national-guard-deployed-to-election-sites-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/national-guard-deployed-to-election-sites-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.