# National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?". Arizona leads at 54%. Next is Wisconsin at 53%. $13K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-07T13:43:03Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $13K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Arizona | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| Wisconsin | 53% | — | 53% | not on both |
| Michigan | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Nevada | 38% | — | 38% | not on both |
| Yes | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| Pennsylvania | 29% | — | 29% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [each state's official government websites](https://www.usa.gov/state-local-governments), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the states and the District of Columbia that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law collectively hold a majority of the electoral votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will consider all jurisdictions that have concurrently enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law, with the intent for it to be in effect for the 2028 presidential election. Electoral-vote totals are based on the apportionment of electors in effect on the resolution date. A jurisdiction that has repealed the compact or withdrawn from it, such that it is no longer a member, will not be counted. Injunctions or other legal action against the compact as a whole or any state's implementation of it will not be relevant for purposes of this market. 

The primary resolution source will be official state legislative records and the National Popular Vote organization's status page (https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/national-popular-vote-compact-implemented-before-the-2028-election
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/national-popular-vote-compact-implemented-before-the-2028-election?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnpvicstates?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/national-popular-vote-compact-implemented-before-the-2028-election

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.