# NATO downs another Russian drone by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NATO downs another Russian drone by...?". November 30 leads at 45%. Next is November 15 at 9%. $4K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T13:52:41Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 16, 2026
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| November 30 | 45% | 45% |
| November 15 | 9% | 9% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.

A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-byptptpt-20261022?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nato-downs-another-russian-drone-by

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.