# NCAA Football: Team to Qualify for 2026 Conference USA Championship Game: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NCAA Football: Team to Qualify for 2026 Conference USA Championship Game". Liberty Flames leads at 80.7%. Next is Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 78.8%. $36K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 6, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:17:41Z (19 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 6, 2026
- Volume traded: $36K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Liberty Flames | 80.7% | 62.5% | 99% | 36.5 pts |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 78.8% | 63.5% | 94% | 30.5 pts |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 20.9% | 36.9% | 5% | 31.9 pts |
| Delaware Blue Hens | 14.1% | 50.5% | 2% | 48.5 pts |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 10.9% | 37.6% | 2% | 35.6 pts |
| Missouri State Bears | 9.2% | 30.8% | 2% | 28.8 pts |
| Kennesaw State Owls | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Florida International | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| New Mexico St. | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Sam Houston | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA](https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game. 

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game is cancelled, postponed after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Conference USA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ncaa-football-team-to-qualify-for-2026-conference-usa-championship-game
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ncaa-football-team-to-qualify-for-2026-conference-usa-championship-game?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaafcusaqual?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ncaa-football-team-to-qualify-for-2026-conference-usa-championship-game

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.