# NCAA Tournament 2027: Team to advance to the Final Four: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NCAA Tournament 2027: Team to advance to the Final Four". Duke leads at 69%. Next is Kansas at 58.5%. $14K has traded across 73 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 29, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 29, 2027
- Volume traded: $14K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Duke | 69% | 69% |
| Kansas | 58.5% | 58.5% |
| Oklahoma | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Clemson | 52.2% | 52.2% |
| San Diego State | 51.9% | 51.9% |
| Florida State | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Memphis | 50% | 50% |
| Purdue | 50% | 50% |
| Dayton | 50% | 50% |
| Providence | 50% | 50% |
| Seton Hall | 50% | 50% |
| Georgetown | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Wake Forest | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Florida | 35% | 35% |
| USC | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| Illinois | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| UConn | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Texas Tech | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| Arizona | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Michigan State | 14% | 14% |
| Louisville | 14% | 14% |
| LSU | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Texas | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Houston | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| St. John's | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Gonzaga | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| North Carolina | 12% | 12% |
| Arkansas | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Nebraska | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Miami | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Kentucky | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Virginia | 9% | 9% |
| Missouri | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Wisconsin | 8% | 8% |
| Villanova | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Boston College | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Baylor | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Auburn | 7% | 7% |
| Vanderbilt | 7% | 7% |
| Richmond | 6.9% | 6.9% |

Showing the top 40 of 73 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ncaa.com](https://www.ncaa.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team qualifies for the Final Four (national semifinals) of the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to reach the Final Four (e.g., it is eliminated or not selected for the tournament), this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, or the Final Four teams are not determined by April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ncaa-tournament-2027-team-to-advance-to-the-final-four
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ncaa-tournament-2027-team-to-advance-to-the-final-four?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ncaa-tournament-2027-team-to-advance-to-the-final-four

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.