# Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory". Thompson, 1+ pts leads at 96.9%. Next is Thompson, 2+ pts at 95.6%. $77K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:08:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $77K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Thompson, 1+ pts | 96.9% | — | 96.9% | not on both |
| Thompson, 2+ pts | 95.6% | — | 95.6% | not on both |
| Thompson, 5+ pts | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 45% | 45% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 44% | 44% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 43% | 43% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 21.2% | 21.2% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 6%+ | 17.8% | 17.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 18%+ | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Flippo, 1+ pts | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Flippo, 10+ pts | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Flippo, 13+ pts | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Flippo, 16+ pts | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| Flippo, 4+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| Flippo, 7+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| Flippo, 19+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Nevada Secretary of State](https://www.nvsos.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nevadas-2nd-district-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nv-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nevadas-2nd-district-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.