# New Jersey's 6th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey's 6th District margin of victory". Pallone, 10+ pts leads at 90.1%. Next is Pallone, 13+ pts at 87%. $43K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:07:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $43K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pallone, 10+ pts | 90.1% | — | 90.1% | not on both |
| Pallone, 13+ pts | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| Pallone, 16+ pts | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Pallone, 19+ pts | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Pallone, 25+ pts | 57% | — | 57% | not on both |
| Pallone, 22+ pts | 55% | — | 55% | not on both |
| Pallone, 28+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Pallone, 31+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Pallone, 34+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Democrat 35-40% | 42% | 42% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 10-15% | 18.1% | 18.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 20-25% | 18% | 18% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 25-30% | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 30-35% | 8% | 8% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 40%+ | 5.1% | 5.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 15-20% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-10% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New Jersey Division of Elections](https://www.nj.gov/state/elections).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/new-jerseys-6th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nj-06-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/new-jerseys-6th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.