# New Senate confirms a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "New Senate confirms a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by...?". June 30, 2027 leads at 56%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 23.7%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T16:11:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| June 30, 2027 | 56% | 65% |
| March 31, 2027 | 23.7% | 27.5% |
| January 31, 2027 | 20.3% | 23.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [senate.gov](https://www.senate.gov).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 120th United States Senate confirms any individual nominated by President Trump to a Cabinet-level position or as a Supreme Court justice, a federal appeals court judge, or a federal district court judge (including the district courts of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. Confirmation of a Vice President under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment will qualify.

Recess appointments, acting appointments, and confirmations by the 119th or any earlier Senate will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/new-senate-confirms-a-trump-cabinet-or-federal-judge-nominee-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-senate-confirms-a-trump-cabinet-or-federal-judge-nominee-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/new-senate-confirms-a-trump-cabinet-or-federal-judge-nominee-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.