# New York's 21st District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "New York's 21st District margin of victory". Constantino, 1+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Republican 0-3% at 57.5%. $47K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:10:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $47K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Constantino, 1+ pts | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 57.5% | 57.5% | — | not on both |
| Constantino, 3+ pts | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| Constantino, 6+ pts | 9.6% | — | 9.6% | not on both |
| Constantino, 9+ pts | 3.4% | — | 3.4% | not on both |
| Republican 21%+ | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Constantino, 12+ pts | 2.1% | — | 2.1% | not on both |
| Constantino, 15+ pts | 1.6% | — | 1.6% | not on both |
| Constantino, 21+ pts | 1.6% | — | 1.6% | not on both |
| Constantino, 18+ pts | 1.3% | — | 1.3% | not on both |
| Constantino, 24+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Gendebien, 1+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Gendebien, 3+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Gendebien, 6+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 3%+ | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 18-21% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Gendebien, 9+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New York State Board of Elections](https://elections.ny.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/new-yorks-21st-district-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ny-21-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/new-yorks-21st-district-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.