# New York's 23rd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "New York's 23rd District margin of victory". Langworthy, 8+ pts leads at 98.6%. Next is Langworthy, 11+ pts at 98%. $30K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:08:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $30K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Langworthy, 8+ pts | 98.6% | — | 98.6% | not on both |
| Langworthy, 11+ pts | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Langworthy, 14+ pts | 67% | — | 67% | not on both |
| Langworthy, 17+ pts | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 53.5% | 53.5% | — | not on both |
| Langworthy, 20+ pts | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| Langworthy, 29+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Langworthy, 23+ pts | 49.1% | — | 49.1% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 45.1% | 45.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 41.7% | 41.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Langworthy, 26+ pts | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 7.8% | 7.8% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Langworthy, 32+ pts | 2.3% | — | 2.3% | not on both |
| Republican 35%+ | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New York State Board of Elections](https://elections.ny.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/new-yorks-23rd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ny-23-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/new-yorks-23rd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.