# New York's 6th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "New York's 6th District margin of victory". Meng, 13+ pts leads at 98.8%. Next is Meng, 16+ pts at 98%. $24K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:08:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Meng, 13+ pts | 98.8% | — | 98.8% | not on both |
| Meng, 16+ pts | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Meng, 28+ pts | 96.9% | — | 96.9% | not on both |
| Meng, 25+ pts | 96% | — | 96% | not on both |
| Meng, 19+ pts | 78% | — | 78% | not on both |
| Meng, 22+ pts | 68% | — | 68% | not on both |
| Meng, 10+ pts | 49.7% | — | 49.7% | not on both |
| Meng, 37+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Meng, 40+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Democrat 20-25% | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 35-40% | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 25-30% | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 30-35% | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Meng, 31+ pts | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Democrat 40-45% | 17.9% | 17.9% | — | not on both |
| Meng, 34+ pts | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Democrat 15-20% | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 5-15% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican Wins | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 45%+ | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New York State Board of Elections](https://elections.ny.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/new-yorks-6th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ny-06-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/new-yorks-6th-district-margin-of-victory

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.