# New Zealand rate decision in December: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "New Zealand rate decision in December". 25 bps increase leads at 71.3%. Next is No change at 23.9%. $66K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:18:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $66K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25 bps increase | 71.3% | 71% | 69% | 2.0 pts |
| No change | 23.9% | 23.5% | 24% | 0.5 pts |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | 3.3% | 2% | 1.3 pts |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1% | 0.4 pts |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1% | 0.8 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [rbnz.govt.nz](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Reserve Bank of New Zealand](https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-decisions), [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/interest-rate).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/new-zealand-rate-decision-in-december
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-december-20260908230600001?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionnz?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/new-zealand-rate-decision-in-december

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.