# Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?". Rui Costa leads at 38.5%. Next is Celso Amorim at 19.8%. $2K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:22:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Rui Costa | 38.5% | 33% |
| Celso Amorim | 19.8% | 17% |
| Aloizio Mercadante | 18.1% | 15.5% |
| José Múcio | 15.8% | 13.5% |
| Jaques Wagner | 7.8% | 6.7% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Defense (Ministro da Defesa) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Defense at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.

The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.

If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.

If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-brazilian-minister-of-defense
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazilian-minister-of-defense?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-brazilian-minister-of-defense

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.