# Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?". Rafael Fonteles leads at 32%. Next is Geraldo Alckmin at 26%. $92K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T17:05:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $92K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rafael Fonteles | 32% | 32% | — | not on both |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 26% | 26% | — | not on both |
| Dario Durigan | 17% | 17% | — | not on both |
| Fernando Haddad | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Shaul Meridor | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Aloizio Mercadante | 7.2% | 7.2% | — | not on both |
| Rogério Ceron | 5.1% | 5.1% | — | not on both |
| Israel Katz | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Naftali Bennett | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Yair Lapid | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Yaron Zelekha | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Gleisi Hoffmann | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Eli Cohen | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Gabriel Galípolo | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Keren Terner Eyal | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Paulo Guedes | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Aryeh Deri | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Chili Tropper | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Moshe Feiglin | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Naama Lazimi | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Nir Barkat | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Yair Golan | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Simone Tebet | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Finance (Ministro da Fazenda) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Finance at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Finance will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.

The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Finance” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.

If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Finance are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.

If no such Minister of Finance assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-brazilian-minister-of-finance
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazilian-minister-of-finance?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrfinmin?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-brazilian-minister-of-finance

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.