# Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?". Mauro Vieira leads at 31%. Next is Aloizio Mercadante at 30%. $104K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T00:39:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $104K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mauro Vieira | 31% | 31% | — | not on both |
| Aloizio Mercadante | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| Yair Lapid | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Celso Amorim | 8% | 8% | — | not on both |
| Naftali Bennett | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Jaques Wagner | 6.9% | 6.9% | — | not on both |
| Gideon Sa'ar | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Chili Tropper | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Yossi Cohen | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Maria Laura da Rocha | 4.3% | 4.3% | — | not on both |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Ron Dermer | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Fernando Haddad | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Einat Wilf | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Israel Katz | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Yair Golan | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Yossi Cohen | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Eli Cohen | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Amir Ohana | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Benny Gantz | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs (Ministro das Relações Exteriores) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Foreign Affairs at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.

The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.

If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.

If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-brazilian-minister-of-foreign-affairs
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-brazilian-minister-of-foreign-affairs?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisrformin?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-brazilian-minister-of-foreign-affairs

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.