# Next ECB President?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next ECB President?". Klaas Knot leads at 34.5%. Next is Pablo Hernández de Cos at 32.5%. $5K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 8, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:58:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 8, 2027
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Klaas Knot | 34.5% | 43% |
| Pablo Hernández de Cos | 32.5% | 40.5% |
| François Villeroy de Galhau | 10% | 12.5% |
| Fabio Panetta | 8.4% | 10.5% |
| Nadia Calviño | 5.9% | 7.3% |
| Joachim Nagel | 5.2% | 6.5% |
| Olli Rehn | 3.5% | 4.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down as President of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html).

This market will resolve to the first individual who is formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank to succeed Christine Lagarde.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank by the European Council. A recommendation by the Council of the European Union alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or acting President of the European Central Bank will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market will immediately resolve to the formally appointed individual regardless of whether that individual subsequently takes office or whether another individual holds the office after the appointment.

If no such President is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Council and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-ecb-president
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-ecb-president?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-ecb-president

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.