# Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?". No release by November 30 leads at 35.5%. Next is November 20 at 28.1%. $12K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:59:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 5, 2026
- Volume traded: $12K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No release by November 30 | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| November 20 | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| November 14 | 25% | 25% |
| November 7 | 23.4% | 23.4% |
| November 18 | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| November 17 | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| November 19 | 21% | 21% |
| November 16 | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| November 24 | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| November 6 | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| November 23 | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| November 27 | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| November 26 | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| November 13 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| November 8 | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| November 10 | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| November 30 | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| November 5 | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| November 28 | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| November 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| November 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 22 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 15 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 25 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| November 29 | 0.6% | 0.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-grok-model-48-released-on
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-onptptpt-20261027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-grok-model-48-released-on

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.