# Next Israeli election called by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Israeli election called by...?". December 31, 2027 leads at 59.6%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 36.2%. $4K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:17:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31, 2027 | 59.6% | 70% |
| March 31, 2027 | 36.2% | 42.5% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4.2% | 5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legislative snap election is called in Israel between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The calling of a legislative snap election requires the formal dissolution of the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, or any other formal scheduling, according to Israeli law, of a new election for all members of the Knesset, other than the next regularly scheduled Knesset election. An election called before the 26th Knesset convenes, including a repeat of the October 27, 2026 election, will also qualify; re-votes limited to individual polling stations will not.

An announcement of an intention to call an election, a failed vote of no confidence, or the collapse of the governing coalition will not by itself qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

The election need not take place by the deadline. Once a qualifying election is formally called, its subsequent cancellation or postponement will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-israeli-election-called-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-election-called-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-israeli-election-called-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.