# Next Israeli government formed by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Israeli government formed by...?". June 30, 2027 leads at 75.5%. Next is February 28, 2027 at 52.5%. $148K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:15:00Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $148K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| June 30, 2027 | 75.5% | 75.5% |
| February 28, 2027 | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| December 31, 2026 | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| November 30, 2026 | 7.2% | 7.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [main.knesset.gov.il](https://main.knesset.gov.il).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.

Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-israeli-government-formed-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-government-formed-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-israeli-government-formed-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.