# Next Israeli government # of seats?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Israeli government # of seats?". 58 leads at 42.3%. Next is 64-66 at 19.8%. $16K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $16K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 58 | 42.3% | 43.5% |
| 64-66 | 19.8% | 20.4% |
| 58-60 | 18% | 18.5% |
| 70-72 | 13.1% | 13.5% |
| 61-63 | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| 67-69 | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 73+ | 1% | 1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the Knesset held by the parties included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election.

The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Only the seats attributed to the government's parties at that moment will be considered; seats gained or lost afterward will not affect the resolution of this market. Seats will be attributed to parties according to the Knesset factions in place at the time of that vote.

A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not count toward the government's seat total.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-israeli-government-of-seats
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-government-of-seats?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-israeli-government-of-seats

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.