# Next Japanese general election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Japanese general election winner?". Liberal Democratic Party leads at 75%. Next is Sanseitō at 7%. $16K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2031.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:06:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 7, 2031
- Volume traded: $16K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Liberal Democratic Party | 75% | 75% |
| Sanseitō | 7% | 7% |
| Democratic Party for the People | 5% | 5% |
| Constitutional Democratic Party | 4% | 4% |
| Democratic Reform Party | 4% | 4% |
| Team Mirai | 3% | 3% |
| Japan Innovation Party | 2% | 2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications](https://www.soumu.go.jp/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-japanese-general-election-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-japanese-general-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.