# Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?". No release by November 30 leads at 60.6%. Next is November 11 at 10.5%. $33K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T09:06:05Z (6 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 12, 2026
- Volume traded: $33K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No release by November 30 | 60.6% | 67.5% |
| November 11 | 10.5% | 11.7% |
| November 15 | 4.3% | 4.8% |
| November 28 | 4% | 4.4% |
| November 17 | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| November 21 | 3% | 3.3% |
| November 25 | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| November 16 | 2.6% | 3% |
| November 14 | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| November 23 | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| November 30 | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| November 24 | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| November 29 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| November 19 | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| November 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November 18 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November 26 | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| November 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-muse-spark-model-14-released-on-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-model-1pt4-released-onptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-muse-spark-model-14-released-on-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.