# Next Mythos Model (5.3+) released by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Mythos Model (5.3+) released by...?". February 28 leads at 76%. Next is January 31 at 61.5%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:19:41Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| February 28 | 76% | 76% |
| January 31 | 61.5% | 61.5% |
| December 31 | 28% | 28% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Mythos model (5.3+) is released between market creation and the specified date (ET), as described below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mythos" and be designated as version 5.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.3 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Mythos 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Mythos 6, while models whose name does not include "Mythos" or which retain a version designation below 5.3, such as Claude Mythos 5.2 or Claude Fable 5.2, will not qualify.

A qualifying model will be considered released once Anthropic officially announces its release and makes it available to external users, including where access is limited to organizations approved through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs (such as the Cyber Verification Program or Project Glasswing), as was the case for Claude Mythos 5.2, released November 9, 2026. General public availability is not required. Internal testing, or access granted only to pre-release testers or evaluators without an official release announcement, will not qualify, and an announcement of future availability will not count until the model is actually available to such users.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-mythos-model-53-released-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mythos-model-5pt3-released-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-mythos-model-53-released-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.