# Next Prime Minister of Estonia: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Prime Minister of Estonia". Urmas Reinsalu leads at 32%. Next is Mihhail Kõlvart at 15.8%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 8, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:21:41Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 8, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Urmas Reinsalu | 32% | 47.5% |
| Mihhail Kõlvart | 15.8% | 23.5% |
| Jonatan Vseviov | 11.8% | 17.5% |
| Martin Helme | 11.1% | 16.5% |
| Lavly Perling | 9.2% | 13.8% |
| Kristen Michal | 8.7% | 13% |
| Kristina Kallas | 8.4% | 12.5% |
| Lauri Läänemets | 3% | 4.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Estonia on March 7, 2027. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Estonia following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Estonia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-prime-minister-of-estonia
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-estonia?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-prime-minister-of-estonia

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.