# Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner". María Corina Machado leads at 63.1%. Next is Delcy Rodríguez at 12.4%. $46K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2030.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T17:06:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2030
- Volume traded: $46K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| María Corina Machado | 63.1% | 53.5% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 12.4% | 10.5% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Donald Trump | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| Marco Rubio | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| Henrique Capriles | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| Manuel Rosales | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| Diosdado Cabello | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Edmundo González | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Nicolás Maduro | 1.2% | 1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Venezuelan presidential election to take place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET.

Any appointment or selection of a president not made through a popular election does not qualify as a presidential election.

If no Venezuelan presidential election takes place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If a Venezuelan presidential election takes place, but no winner is officially declared by 11:59 PM ET on the 365th calendar day following the date of the election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the winner of the election as officially declared by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/next-venezuelan-presidential-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-venezuelan-presidential-election-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/next-venezuelan-presidential-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.