# North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory". Republican 0-3% leads at 71.7%. Next is Smith, 1+ pts at 63%. $87K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T17:10:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $87K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican 0-3% | 71.7% | 71.7% | — | not on both |
| Smith, 1+ pts | 63% | — | 63% | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 43.1% | 43.1% | — | not on both |
| Murphy, 1+ pts | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| Murphy, 3+ pts | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Democrat 3-6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 6%+ | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| Smith, 3+ pts | 1.7% | — | 1.7% | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Murphy, 6+ pts | 1.3% | — | 1.3% | not on both |
| Murphy, 9+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Murphy, 12+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Murphy, 18+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Smith, 6+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Smith, 9+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Murphy, 15+ pts | 0.9% | — | 0.9% | not on both |
| Murphy, 21+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Murphy, 24+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Democrat 3-6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 18%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [North Carolina State Board of Elections](https://www.ncsbe.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/north-carolinas-3rd-district-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nc-03-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/north-carolinas-3rd-district-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.