# North Carolina's 5th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 5th District margin of victory". Democrat 0-3% leads at 47.1%. Next is Democrat 0-3% at 42.5%. $51K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T17:10:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $51K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrat 0-3% | 47.1% | 47.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 0-3% | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| Foxx, 3+ pts | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 3%+ | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 21%+ | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Foxx, 6+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 9+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 12+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 15+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 18+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 24+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 27+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Foxx, 21+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Republican 18-21% | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [North Carolina State Board of Elections](https://www.ncsbe.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/north-carolinas-5th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nc-05-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/north-carolinas-5th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.