# Northern Nalšia by-election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Northern Nalšia by-election winner?". Gintautas Kindurys leads at 39.6%. Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 16.2%. $14K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:27:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 8, 2027
- Volume traded: $14K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gintautas Kindurys | 39.6% | 42.5% | 44% | 1.5 pts |
| Vladislav Kondratovič | 16.2% | 17% | 19% | 2.0 pts |
| Giedrius Dainys | 9.2% | 11.3% | 6% | 5.3 pts |
| Dalia Štraupaitė | 7.6% | 8% | 9% | 1.0 pts |
| Antanas Šakalis | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7% | 0.3 pts |
| Mėta Palauskaitė | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6% | 1.4 pts |
| Maksimas Paukštė | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Nikolajus Lebedevičius | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3% | 0.9 pts |
| Ignotas Adomavičius | 2.8% | 2.1% | 6% | 3.9 pts |
| Viktor Voronin | 2.7% | 3% | 3% | 0.1 pts |
| Andrej Šildiajėv | 2.4% | 1.4% | 4% | 2.7 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [vrk.lt](https://www.vrk.lt/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Central Electoral Commission of Lithuania](https://www.vrk.lt/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/northern-nalšia-by-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/northern-nalsia-district-by-election-winner-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnalsiaby?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/northern-nalšia-by-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.