# Nothing Ever Happens: November: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Nothing Ever Happens: November". Yes leads at 90%. $4K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:06:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 90% | 90% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- Bitcoin all time high
- Any G7 leader out (Carney, Macron, Merz, Meloni, Takaichi, Burnham, Trump)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/November_NEH.pdf

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nothing-ever-happens-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-november-26?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nothing-ever-happens-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.