# November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?". 1st hottest leads at 93.2%. Next is 2nd hottest at 6.7%. $11K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:22:23Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $11K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1st hottest | 93.2% | 93% |
| 2nd hottest | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| 3rd hottest | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 4th or lower | 0% | 0.1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.

Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.