# November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)". 1.54ºC leads at 35.3%. Next is 1.50–1.54ºC at 27.7%. $7K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:59:00Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 2, 2027
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1.54ºC | 35.3% | 37% |
| 1.50–1.54ºC | 27.7% | 29% |
| 1.45–1.49ºC | 20.5% | 21.5% |
| 1.40–1.44ºC | 11.9% | 12.5% |
| 1.35–1.39ºC | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| 1.35ºC | 0.3% | 0.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/november-2026-temperature-increase-ºc
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/november-2026-temperature-increase-ºc

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.