# November Inflation US - Monthly: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "November Inflation US - Monthly". Above 3.1% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.3% at 98%. $1.1M has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 11, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T12:45:40Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 11, 2026
- Volume traded: $1.1M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.1% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 3.3% | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 3.5% | 97% | — | 97% | not on both |
| Above 3.0% | 93.2% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 3.2% | 90.8% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 3.4% | 87.3% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 3.6% | 73.2% | — | 83% | not on both |
| Above 3.7% | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| 0.1% | 28.1% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| 0.6% | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Above 3.8% | 26.5% | — | 24% | not on both |
| 0.2% | 26.4% | 27.5% | — | not on both |
| 0.4% | 25.8% | 25.8% | — | not on both |
| 0.3% | 25.1% | 26.1% | — | not on both |
| 0.5% | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| 0.0% | 23.5% | 23.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 4.0% | 8.5% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Above 3.9% | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Above 4.2% | 5.3% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 5.2% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Above 5.4% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Above 4.4% | 4.5% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 4.6% | 3% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.8% | 2.5% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 5.0% | 2.3% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.3% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 4.1% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.5% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.7% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.9% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 5.6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [BLS - CPI-U](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm).

## Settlement rules

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in November 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/november-inflation-us-monthly
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/november-inflation-us-monthly?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpielecyoy?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/november-inflation-us-monthly

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.