# November Unemployment Rate: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "November Unemployment Rate". Above 3.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.8% at 98%. $88K has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T02:04:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 4, 2026
- Volume traded: $88K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 3.7% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 3.8% | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Maintain current rate | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 3.9% | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Above 4.0% | 84% | — | 84% | not on both |
| 4.1% | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| 4.2% | 45% | 45% | — | not on both |
| Above 4.1% | 42% | — | 42% | not on both |
| Above 6.3% | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Above 6.2% | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| Above 6.4% | 21% | — | 21% | not on both |
| 4.0% | 18.5% | 18.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 6.5% | 17% | — | 17% | not on both |
| 4.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 6.6% | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Above 6.8% | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Above 4.2% | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Above 6.7% | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Above 4.6% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Above 4.7% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Above 4.8% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Above 4.9% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Above 6.9% | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Above 7.0% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Above 7.1% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Cut 1-25bps | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| 4.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| 3.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| Above 4.3% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 4.5% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 5.0% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Hike 1-25bps | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for November 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for December 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/november-unemployment-rate
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/november-unemployment-rate-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxue?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/november-unemployment-rate

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.