# Number of North Korea Missile Tests in November 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in November 2026?". 4+ leads at 55.2%. Next is 3 at 22%. $12K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:27:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $12K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4+ | 55.2% | 51.5% |
| 3 | 22% | 20.5% |
| 2 | 21.5% | 20% |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during November 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.

Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.

Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.