# Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026?". Above 25 leads at 74%. Next is Above 50 at 46%. $2K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:23:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 25 | 74% | — | 74% | not on both |
| Above 50 | 46% | — | 46% | not on both |
| 40 - 59 | 33.5% | 33.5% | — | not on both |
| 10 - 24 | 28.5% | 28.5% | — | not on both |
| 60 or more | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| Above 75 | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| 25 - 39 | 17.5% | 17.5% | — | not on both |
| Under 10 | 12.5% | 12.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 100 | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Above 125 | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Above 150 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 175 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 200 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 225 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 250 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 275 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/number-of-tornadoes-in-nov-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtornado?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/number-of-tornadoes-in-nov-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.