# NZ Election: Opportunity Party # of seats?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "NZ Election: Opportunity Party # of seats?". 7-9 leads at 43.5%. Next is 4-6 at 34.5%. $2K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T00:38:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 8, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 7-9 | 43.5% | 43.5% |
| 4-6 | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| 4 | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| 10-12 | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| 13+ | 16% | 16% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Opportunity Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Opportunity Party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/nz-election-opportunity-party-of-seats
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nz-election-opportunity-party-of-seats?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/nz-election-opportunity-party-of-seats

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.