# October Inflation UK - Annual: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "October Inflation UK - Annual". Above 4.00% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.90% at 98%. $16K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:18:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 18, 2026
- Volume traded: $16K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 4.00% | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 3.90% | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 4.10% | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 4.20% | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 4.30% | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 4.40% | 97% | — | 97% | not on both |
| Above 4.50% | 93% | — | 93% | not on both |
| Above 4.60% | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| Above 4.70% | 67% | — | 67% | not on both |
| 3.7-3.9% | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Above 4.80% | 44% | — | 44% | not on both |
| 4.0-4.2% | 36% | 36% | — | not on both |
| 3.4-3.6% | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| 3.0% | 19.4% | 19.4% | — | not on both |
| 4.3%+ | 19.4% | 19.4% | — | not on both |
| Above 4.90% | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| 3.1-3.3% | 11.7% | 11.7% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ons.gov.uk](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IGBE](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego), [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi).

## Settlement rules

This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending October 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for October 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on November 18, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/october-inflation-uk-annual
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-uk-annual-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbrazilinf?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/october-inflation-uk-annual

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.