# Ohio Senate: margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Ohio Senate: margin of victory". Brown, 2+ pts leads at 99.9%. Next is Brown, 1+ pts at 99.8%. $683K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:13:00Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $683K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Brown, 2+ pts | 99.9% | — | 99.9% | not on both |
| Brown, 1+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| Brown, 3+ pts | 99.6% | — | 99.6% | not on both |
| Brown, 4+ pts | 96.9% | — | 96.9% | not on both |
| Brown 3-6% | 95.5% | 95.5% | — | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, 4-6% | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| Brown, 5+ pts | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Brown, 6+ pts | 7.1% | — | 7.1% | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, 6-8% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Brown 6-9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Brown, 12+ pts | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Brown, 13+ pts | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, ≥12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, 0-2% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, 2-4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, 8-10% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Sherrod Brown, 10-12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Brown 0-3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Brown, 7+ pts | 0.6% | — | 0.6% | not on both |
| Brown, 8+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Brown 9-12% | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Brown, 9+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Brown, 10+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Brown, 11+ pts | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | not on both |
| Husted 0-3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Husted 6-9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Brown 12%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Husted 3-6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Husted 9-12% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Husted 12%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Ohio Secretary of State](https://www.ohiosos.gov).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ohio-senate-margin-of-victory-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ohio-senate-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ohio-senate-margin-of-victory-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.