# Ohio's 1st District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 1st District margin of victory". Landsman, 1+ pts leads at 99%. Next is Landsman, 5+ pts at 98.3%. $31K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:16:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $31K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Landsman, 1+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Landsman, 5+ pts | 98.3% | — | 98.3% | not on both |
| Landsman, 8+ pts | 98.2% | — | 98.2% | not on both |
| Landsman, 2+ pts | 98.1% | — | 98.1% | not on both |
| Landsman, 11+ pts | 75% | — | 75% | not on both |
| Democrat 12-15% | 50.1% | 50.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 9-12% | 43.5% | 43.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 6-9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 15-18% | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 21%+ | 4.4% | 4.4% | — | not on both |
| Landsman, 14+ pts | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 18-21% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Landsman, 17+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Landsman, 20+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Republican 3%+ | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 3-6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Ohio Secretary of State](https://www.ohiosos.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ohios-1st-district-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oh-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ohios-1st-district-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.