# Ohio's 4th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 4th District margin of victory". Republican 30-35% leads at 96.4%. Next is Jordan, 25+ pts at 91.1%. $33K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:06:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $33K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican 30-35% | 96.4% | 96.4% | — | not on both |
| Jordan, 25+ pts | 91.1% | — | 91.1% | not on both |
| Jordan, 31+ pts | 64% | — | 64% | not on both |
| Jordan, 34+ pts | 63% | — | 63% | not on both |
| Jordan, 22+ pts | 50.9% | — | 50.9% | not on both |
| Jordan, 37+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Jordan, 46+ pts | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Jordan, 28+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Jordan, 40+ pts | 41% | — | 41% | not on both |
| Jordan, 43+ pts | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 21.9% | 21.9% | — | not on both |
| Jordan, 49+ pts | 17% | — | 17% | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-25% | 1.7% | 1.7% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-15% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 55%+ | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 50-55% | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Ohio Secretary of State](https://www.ohiosos.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ohios-4th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oh-04-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ohios-4th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.