# Oscar Winner: Casting: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Casting". The Odyssey leads at 31.7%. Next is La Bola Negra at 22.8%. $29K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-14T01:48:31Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 31, 2027
- Volume traded: $29K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| The Odyssey | 31.7% | 42% | 30% | 12.0 pts |
| La Bola Negra | 22.8% | 24.4% | 37% | 12.6 pts |
| Wild Horse Nine | 12.6% | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7 pts |
| Dune: Part Three | 8.2% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 11.0 pts |
| Obsession | 3.6% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Tie | 3.2% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| Being Heumann | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Club Kid | 2.7% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Elsinore | 2.7% | — | 3% | not on both |
| I Play Rocky | 2.7% | — | 3% | not on both |
| The Debut | 2.5% | 0.6% | 5% | 4.4 pts |
| Michael | 1.6% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 3.3 pts |
| Fjord | 0.5% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Project Hail Mary | 0.5% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| All of a Sudden | 0.4% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Digger | 0.4% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| The Invite | 0.4% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Clarissa | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Cry to Heaven | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Saturn Return | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| UNABOMBER | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [oscars.org](https://www.oscars.org/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences](https://www.oscars.org/oscars).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/oscar-winner-casting
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-casting-winner-1754500000000?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscars?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/oscar-winner-casting

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.