# Oscar Winner: Documentary Short Film: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Oscar Winner: Documentary Short Film". The Baddest Speechwriter of All leads at 25%. Next is The Tuners at 12.6%. $34K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:05:41Z (29 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 31, 2027
- Volume traded: $34K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| The Baddest Speechwriter of All | 25% | 23% | 31% | 8.0 pts |
| The Tuners | 12.6% | 14.5% | 7% | 7.5 pts |
| A Derailment | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| The Revolution Against Death | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| The Boys and the Bees | 7.5% | — | 7.5% | not on both |
| Oh Whale | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Water Cooler | 5.5% | 5.5% | — | not on both |
| A Wolf in the Suburbs | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6% | 1.2 pts |
| Tie | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| One Last Order | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| We're Fine | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Listen | 0.8% | 0.8% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences](https://www.oscars.org/oscars).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/oscar-winner-documentary-short-film
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-documentary-short-film-winner-20261013180153422?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscars?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/oscar-winner-documentary-short-film

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.