# Panama Canal effectively closed by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Panama Canal effectively closed by...?". Above 170 leads at 96.9%. Next is Above 180 at 92.8%. $95K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-08T13:52:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $95K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 170 | 96.9% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 180 | 92.8% | — | 94% | not on both |
| Above 185 | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| Above 190 | 64.3% | — | 62% | not on both |
| Above 195 | 41.3% | — | 43% | not on both |
| Above 200 | 15.5% | — | 15% | not on both |
| December 31 | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Above 205 | 5.5% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Above 210 | 4% | — | 2% | not on both |
| November 30 | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| Above 220 | 2% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint2).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. 

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d
, including both the chart and downloadable files.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/panama-canal-effectively-closed-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpanamaweekly?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/panama-canal-effectively-closed-by

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.